News

Australian retail sales remained challenging in July 2024 with modest growth of 2.3% compared to the same month last year according to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). It revealed July’s retail spending totalled $36.1 billion nationwide, compared to $35.3 billion in July 2023.

‘Other retailing’ – including cosmetics, sports and recreational goods – saw the strongest growth in July (up 5.5%) year-on-year along with the staple category of food (up 3.2%) and Household goods (up 1.5%). Clothing, footwear and accessories (up 0.5%) and Department stores (up 0.1%) showed marginal growth. However, Cafes, restaurants and takeaway services (down 0.3%) declined year on year.

Australian Retailers Association (ARA) CEO Paul Zahra said the pockets of marginal growth in discretionary categories in July were bolstered mainly by the continuation of mid-year sales.

“Last month, Australians continued to shop on price and value as we saw in the End of Financial Year Sales. Households continue to prioritise essentials like food but also focused on small personal luxuries – cosmetics, sports and recreational goods.

“As tough times continue, we are seeing the so-called ‘lipstick effect’ play out – where people are having to do more with less. There are trade-offs in this budget-conscious environment and in July we saw people replacing dining out with food from their local supermarket, allowing some spending on personal luxuries.

“This remains one of retail’s most difficult years – with a continued slowdown in discretionary spend, high business costs and inflation along with ongoing challenges such as retail crime, supply chain disruptions, and the most significant workplace relations reforms in decades.

“Whilst there is great resilience within retail, we know there are many businesses in the sector especially small businesses. The ARA continues to call for a targeted government support for vulnerable retailers who contribute to the nation’s $420bn retail sector.

“Discretionary retailers will be counting on the peak season ahead to replenish their cash reserves. Major shopping events in coming months include Halloween, Black Friday and Cyber Monday and the festive period, which will hopefully provide a much-needed boost to the industry,” said Mr Zahra.

The annual rate eased 0.3 percentage points from 3.8 per cent in June, which itself was down from 4 per cent in May.

And in positive news for the Reserve Bank, underlying inflation has started to ease while the rate of increase in prices on goods is now at its lowest level in three years.

Housing costs were up 4 per cent in the 12 months to July, down from 5.5 per cent in June. Rents were up by 6.9 per cent over the year, a step down from the 7.1 per cent annual rate recorded in June.

The biggest drop was for electricity prices which had climbed in the year to June by 7.5 per cent. In June, power prices fell by 6.4 per cent, taking the annual rate down to minus 5.1 per cent.

It’s the lowest electricity inflation rate since October 2021 with analysts expecting it to fall even further.

The bureau’s acting head of prices statistics, Leigh Merrington, said the various federal, West Australian and Queensland rebates for electricity started flowing in July with more to affect the inflation figures in August.

“Altogether these rebates led to a 6.4 per cent fall in the month of July. Excluding the rebates, electricity prices would have risen 0.9 per cent in July,” Merrington said.

While electricity prices are falling, gas prices are climbing. They lifted by 5.7 per cent in July as gas companies re-set their annual contracts. Over the past 12 months, gas prices increased by 2.7 per cent.

Petrol prices fell by 2.6 per cent last month, taking the annual rate down to 4 per cent. Since July, international and wholesale prices have fallen further while the Australian dollar has strengthened, suggesting petrol inflation will ease again in August.

Tobacco prices, which are affected by government excise rates, have climbed by 13.9 per cent over the past 12 months.

Prices for dairy products, which in early 2023 were climbing at almost 16 per cent, continued to ease with the annual inflation rate for milk, ice cream and cheeses now minus 0.2 per cent.

However, poor growing conditions for key fruit and vegetables flowed through to supermarkets with the annual inflation rate jumping from 3.6 per cent to 7.5 per cent.

In a sign of how global factors are affecting some prices, inflation for tradeable goods lifted to 1.5 per cent. But non-tradeable inflation eased to 4.5 per cent from 5 per cent, its lowest rate since February 2022.

Inflation excluding volatile items and holiday travel also eased, falling to 3.7 per cent from 4 per cent and is now at its lowest level since the start of 2022.

Capital Economics’ Abhijit Surya said the easing in the underlying measure of inflation suggest it will be within the Reserve Bank’s target band by year’s end.

“However, given the still-tight labour market and the positive output gap, we’re sticking to our view that the RBA will err on the side of caution and refrain from cutting rates before the first half of next year,” he said.

The Fair Work Commission has rejected an ANZ employee’s plea to permanently work from home because she feared contracting coronavirus, in a further test for workers and employers still battling over edicts to return to the office.

Deborah Lloyd took ANZ to the tribunal after it earlier this year refused her request to work from home five days a week, saying there was no medical reason preventing the project business analyst from returning to the bank’s Docklands headquarters in Melbourne.

In a decision given this week, Fair Work Commission deputy president Ian Masson sided with ANZ and described Lloyd’s requests as “unreasonable”.

“At its higher end, the premise of Ms Lloyd’s case appears to be that ANZ is required to accommodate her fears about attending the workplace due to the risk of contracting COVID,” Masson said in his judgment. “That ANZ should be expected to accommodate those fears, no matter how disproportionate those fears may be to the risk, is simply unreasonable.”

Peter Vogel, Lloyd’s lawyer, said the 62-year-old was considering appealing the decision, and added her litigation “raises serious issues which concern a lot of Australian workers”.

Almost four years after the COVID-19 pandemic sent most white-collar workers across the nation to work from home, employers are still struggling to lure their staff back into the offices. This has led to vacancy rates in Melbourne’s CBD hitting almost 20 per cent – the highest since 1995 – and 15 per cent in Sydney.

The case will raise further questions about lifting office attendance and managing hybrid arrangements. NSW Premier Chris Minns this month ordered all public servants back to the office three days a week, a move mocked by Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan, who said flexible work arrangements were here to stay.

Lloyd, who has been a permanent employee of ANZ since 2015, works in a team of 10 people, five of whom are based in Melbourne and the other five in India.

Her main interactions with the India-based team are over Teams every second day, and because the Melbourne-based employees are in different buildings, she also meets them via Teams, Lloyd told the tribunal, arguing her presence in the office was unnecessary.

She said she feared contracting coronavirus because of her age, and that she found being in the office stressful. Lloyd, who was asked by Masson during the hearing to remove her mask so he could see facial expressions, told the Fair Work Commission she minimised the time she spent outside the home or her car and permanently wore a respirator when she was in public.

“She says these measures have assisted her [to] avoid any respiratory illness since 2020,” Masson wrote in his judgment.

However, ANZ argued its current expectation that staff spend at least half their time in an ANZ workplace was “already a significant amount of flexibility”, and there was no medical reason underpinning Lloyd’s fears.

The bank told the tribunal Lloyd occasionally attended the office until November, had recently travelled interstate to care for her mother, and occasionally left her house to “undertake required tasks”.

“In doing so, you have shown that you can and do break from your reported self-isolation despite the concerns you hold,” the bank said. “On this basis, ANZ believes the attendance expectations it holds of you are not unreasonable.”

While Masson acknowledged the risk of contracting a serious illness from COVID-19 increased with age, he said Lloyd did not demonstrate she had an underlying medical condition that would make her vulnerable to the disease. He also conceded she could “theoretically perform” her duties from home.

In a statement, ANZ said it was pleased with Masson’s judgment but declined to comment further out of respect for its employee.

In all likelihood, your career won’t always follow the smoothest path. There will be unexpected twists and turns, forcing you to navigate new challenges and even undesirable outcomes. But knowing that this is the reality for most modern workers can add a valuable tool to your professional toolbox.

“Career resilience is the ability to bounce back from challenges in our professional lives, whether it be unemployment, performance issues, bullying or other types of setbacks,” writes senior contributor Caroline Castrillon.

In her recent article for Forbes, Castrillon outlines a multitude of ways to build career resilience, which can help you adapt in the midst of difficult situations and stand strong when faced with adversity. Even if things are going well in your career right now, it’s not a bad idea to begin building up that resilience. That way, when the unexpected occurs, you won’t be caught off guard.

Here are a few of the strategies that Castrillon offers up in her article:

1. Never Stop Learning: The world keeps on changing, and in today’s work culture—with technology advancing at a rapid pace and younger generations questioning the traditional career path—it’s more important than ever to keep up with the times. Make sure you stay current on industry trends, consider taking a few online courses to enhance your skill set, and jump at the opportunity to attend industry conferences.
2. Seek Mentorships: The modern workforce is a multigenerational one. If you have coworkers who come from different generations, engage them in conversation in order to learn from them. This will enable you to recognize different communication styles and perspectives. In the face of a sudden change such as a departmental shift or a layoff, knowing how to communicate with and learn from different people is an incredibly valuable tool.
3. Welcome Constructive Feedback: Don’t back down from difficult conversations. Ask your co-workers and superiors for honest feedback about your work, and make efforts to improve on any weaknesses.

Don’t be afraid of the unexpected. By building up career resilience, you can become a more confident and marketable professional. Make sure to give Castrillon’s full article a read for even more strategies to add to your toolbox.

Women now hold almost 40 per cent of the board roles at Australia’s biggest companies, but men continue to dominate the highest-paid roles.

Governance advisory firm Ownership Matters has issued its annual analysis of ASX-listed companies, and it reveals the highest-paid directors. All but one of the top 15 are men.

“The men are allowing record numbers of female directors into the tent but are yet to meaningfully hand over the best paid chairing roles,” Ownership Matters director Dean Paatsch said.

Maxine Brenner was the 15th highest-paid director in 2023. She sits on the boards of Telstra, Woolworths and Origin Energy. In 2023, she also sat on the Qantas board and took home $1.2 million across the four positions, the report said.

The report found that the top 100 companies have at least two female directors. In 2023, 39.8 per cent of board positions at ASX 100 companies were held by women, up from 9.6 per cent in 2005. Macquarie Group, Woolworths and Nine Entertainment – the owner of this masthead – are the only companies that have more female directors than male.

Just 34 of the 286 companies surveyed have a female chair and only 21 have a female chief executive. But women lead some of the country’s biggest companies, with Qantas, Telstra, Coles and Transurban recently appointing a female chief executive for the first time.

The ASX director talent pool is slowly broadening too. For years, the same few women occupied several director roles. But the report found there are no longer any directors, male or female, sitting on five separate boards in the ASX 300, and none with four board positions in the top 100. There were 74 new directors who joined the top 100 companies last year, while 66 were appointed to the top 200.

“We expect over-boarding to abate through time,” Paatsch said. “It’s possible but difficult for people to maintain four roles or more, especially when there’s a crisis at one of those companies.

“Investors have no problem paying for non-executive director talent, but they resent paying full rates for partial attention.”

Paatsch said companies were increasingly focused on finding directors of differing ages, but there was not much attention paid to cultural diversity.

“I’m not aware of discussion around cultural backgrounds, but there is now a lot of focus on having age diversity in companies that are consumer- or tech-exposed. You don’t want to have a pale, male, stale 65-year-old advising a fast-moving consumer goods company which primarily serves young women,” he said.

There were still too many directors who did not own ordinary shares in the companies they governed, despite a 10 per cent improvement last year, Paatsch said.

Michael Harvey, son of Harvey Norman executive chair Gerry Harvey, has sat on the retail group’s board for 30 years and holds no shares.

But Harvey is now in the minority; 60 per cent of ASX 100 directors have holdings valued at more than one year’s worth of cash fees, up from 50 per cent in 2022.

“What is the excuse for sitting on a board and not being aligned through sacrificing part of your fees to experience the same as shareholders?” Paatsch said.

It’s finally affordable to put milk on your muesli.

And it may be time for the Reserve Bank to take a breath from scaring every person with a mortgage or seeking to rent a roof over their head with threats of another interest rate rise.

Ordinarily, a one-percentage point increase in inflation in a single quarter would have inflation hawks warning of imminent pain from the RBA which will hold its next two-day meeting on Monday and Tuesday next week.

But economists and financial markets had a very different response as the figures suggest that while inflation remains elevated, it is coming down in line with the Reserve’s long-term expectations.

Put it this way. One minute before the Australian Bureau of Statistics released the Consumer Price Index data, financial markets put the chance of an interest rate rise next week at one in four (and a 75 per cent chance of no move). Within minutes of digesting the numbers, the same markets reckoned there was a 4 per cent chance of a rate cut and no chance of a rate rise.

The Reserve Bank focuses on underlying measures of inflation which attempt to take out one-off price spikes and present a real feel for price pressures. For instance, the lift in the June quarter was partly attributable to poor weather conditions which pushed up the price of blueberries.

RBA board members may have no time for inflation, but they aren’t ready to hit the economy because blueberries are scarce and expensive.

Those one-off impacts clouded other sights that lingering price pressures, outside the control of the Reserve Bank, are starting to ease.

If you thought breakfast had become far too expensive over the past two years, you were spot on. Milk prices had climbed by an eye-watering 17.9 per cent in the 12 months to December 2022. Over the same period, breakfast cereal prices had lifted by 15.3 per cent.

The latest figures show milk inflation has now fallen to just 2.2 per cent while for breakfast cereals it has fallen to 4.1 per cent.

Milk and cereals had been affected by two issues – the war in Ukraine (which pushed up the prices of every tradeable commodity) and energy. Higher interest rates aren’t going to stop those two problems.

More importantly to the Reserve Bank, underlying inflation increased by 0.8 per cent in the quarter. On an annual basis, it eased for the sixth consecutive quarter to 3.9 per cent, the lowest level since early 2022.

It may not be falling quickly enough for some of those who like to thrash mortgage holders with ever-increasing interest rates, but it is definitely coming down.

The change in thoughts on the Reserve Bank’s moves was also affected by separate figures from the ABS about retail trade.

The value of retail sales lifted by 0.5 per cent in June which the ABS noted was almost certainly due to people racing out for a bargain purchase in the end-of-financial-year sales.

Much more worrisome was its measure of the volume of retail sales. These fell by 0.3 per cent in the June quarter to be down by 0.6 per cent over the past year.

In the two states with the largest mortgages, Sydney and Melbourne, the volume of retail sales has fallen by 1.2 per cent and 1.1 per cent since June last year. They are now back to where they were in 2021.

That sort of fall would ordinarily force the Reserve Bank to consider easing monetary policy.

On a per capita basis, retail volumes have tumbled for eight consecutive quarters. Over the past year, each of us are buying $109 less of stuff – be it muesli, milk or blueberries.

Inflation is still uncomfortably high for both the Reserve Bank and the Albanese government. The government, with policy initiatives such as its $300 energy rebates and its 10 per cent increase to Commonwealth Rent Assistance, is actively pushing down the official measure of inflation.

The RBA’s 13 interest rate increases since May 2022 are also taking heat out of the economy, as the retail trade figures confirmed.

An economy that expanded by just 0.1 per cent in the March quarter, with unemployment up by 0.6 percentage points over the past 12 months, is showing signs of the Reserve’s interest rate lash.

Mortgage holders are still a long way from getting any reprieve from the RBA. Markets don’t believe that will happen until February next year while some economists reckon it could come in November or December.

Either way, just hold back on spraying a few blueberries on the muesli and milk. For now.

Almost four in 10 Australian workers say they’re being forced back into the office full-time – more than double the number at the same time last year – as employers clamp down on the post-pandemic revolution in hybrid working.

A new survey from recruitment firm Robert Half reveals 39 per cent of workers surveyed are now mandated to attend the office five days a week, up from 19 per cent last year.

While the number of companies with policies requiring staff to attend the workplace at least one day a week had fallen slightly to 86 per cent, there was a push for workers to spend more of their working week in the office.

According to the survey of 1000 Australian office workers and 300 hiring managers conducted in June, four-day mandates are imposed on 12 per cent of workers surveyed, followed by three-day (17 per cent), two-day (14 per cent) and one-day (4 per cent) requirements, while 14 per cent of workers retain complete flexibility over their working location, up from 13 per cent one year ago.

Robert Half director Andrew Brushfield said the softening jobs market and resulting power shift back to employers had enabled many to enforce stricter rules around in-office attendance.

“The pendulum is swinging back to pre-pandemic levels where working from home was an anomaly rather than an expectation,” Mr Brushfield said.

“Staff are attending the office more than they have since the pandemic as many employers have taken the opportunity of a job market with less candidate leverage to request their employees to come back to the office.”

While most workers are happy with the number of days they’re required in the office, more than one in five are unsatisfied, with the level of staff dissatisfaction rising in line with the number of mandated in-office days per week.

Survey respondents say improved collaboration, teamwork, communication and relationship building are the most important benefits of working from the office, however 84 per cent of staff say there are also negative impacts, led by the increased cost of commuting, lunch and other expenses (48 per cent), challenges managing a healthy work-life balance (37 per cent) and increased levels of stress (31 per cent).

The survey results reveal how hybrid working has emerged as one of the most important perks valued by white-collar workers.

Mr Brushfield said employers needed to strike a fine balance between catering to the demands of workers and maintaining a positive and collaborative workplace culture.

“In the current workplace landscape where flexibility is the new high-level currency for many employees, not everyone is pleased with this change of direction away from remote and hybrid work,” he said.

“Mandated office days can be a double-edged sword for workers. While they foster collaboration and connection, they can also lead to resentment and disengagement if not implemented and justified thoughtfully.

“Even with staff coming to terms with attending the office more frequently, the key for employers is to create an environment that highlights the positives of in-office work and sparks joy, not dread.”

A record number of Australians returning from overseas could thwart the Albanese government’s attempts to cut migration levels, as expats are lured home by the strong jobs market.

A net total of 37,380 Australians arrived in the country in 2023-24, a record number that reverses the trend of surging departures after the borders reopened at the end of the pandemic.

In 2021-22, the first year borders were reopened, a record net of 380,510 Australian citizens left the country. Another 242,610 exited the country in 2022-23.

Immigration expert Abul Rizvi said the figures indicated that good employment and economic conditions in Australia were attracting expats home from overseas. He said the labour market was a particular drawcard for Australians living in New Zealand, Britain, Europe and China.

Australia’s unemployment rate rose to 4.1 per cent in June. But the country still boasts one of the lowest jobless rates across advanced economies.

Inflation figures due in less than two weeks will be the key to the Reserve Bank’s interest rate decision in August, as the country’s jobs market remains strong despite economic headwinds.

The unemployment rate rose by less than 0.1 percentage point to 4.1 per cent in June, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. In trend terms, unemployment has remained flat at 4 per cent for four months.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the strong figures were good news in tough economic times.

“This is encouraging but we also know persistent inflation globally and higher interest rates are weighing on our labour market and our economy,” he said.

Opposition employment spokesperson Michaelia Cash said the figures showed a record number of Australians were working multiple jobs to make ends meet.

“People are working harder than ever just to keep their heads above water,” she said.

Both the participation rate (66.9 per cent) and employment-to-population ratio (at 64.2 per cent) remain close to record highs recorded in November.

CreditorWatch chief economist Anneke Thompson said this was positive news for the Reserve Bank, which has been keen to ensure employment remains strong while it works to reduce inflation.

“So far, they are succeeding on the employment side, but it remains to be seen if inflation can be pushed back into the band at the current monetary policy setting,” Thompson said.

The last quarterly consumer price index figures showed inflation had eased to 3.6 per cent through the year to March, down from its December 2022 peak of 7.8 per cent.

However, the more volatile monthly inflation figures have been rising, from 3.6 per cent in the year to April to 4 per cent in the year to May.

A lift in the June-quarter inflation figures would not necessarily spook the Reserve Bank board, but economists said the strength in the jobs market would allow the central bank to lift interest rates next month if inflation was surprisingly high.

AMP deputy chief economist Diana Mousina said job vacancies and advertisements had continued to deteriorate, a leading sign that the labour market was turning, but added that it was easing slowly.

“On its own, today’s labour force release does not pressure the RBA to raise rates again,” she said.

But Mousina said there was a risk the board would lift interest rates next month by 0.25 percentage points, from 4.35 per cent currently, if the June-quarter data showed another high reading for underlying inflation.

EY senior economist Paula Gadsby said the June inflation data, out on July 31, was the key piece of information ahead of the next RBA meeting.

“If that read indicates an acceleration in underlying price pressures, a rate hike is not out of the question. Our central expectation remains that the Reserve Bank will hold the cash rate for some time yet,” she said.

Almost four in 10 Australian workers say they’re being forced back into the office full-time – more than double the number at the same time last year – as employers clamp down on the post-pandemic revolution in hybrid working.

A new survey from recruitment firm Robert Half reveals 39 per cent of workers surveyed are now mandated to attend the office five days a week, up from 19 per cent last year.

While the number of companies with policies requiring staff to attend the workplace at least one day a week had fallen slightly to 86 per cent, there was a push for workers to spend more of their working week in the office.

According to the survey of 1000 Australian office workers and 300 hiring managers conducted in June, four-day mandates are imposed on 12 per cent of workers surveyed, followed by three-day (17 per cent), two-day (14 per cent) and one-day (4 per cent) requirements, while 14 per cent of workers retain complete flexibility over their working location, up from 13 per cent one year ago.

Robert Half director Andrew Brushfield said the softening jobs market and resulting power shift back to employers had enabled many to enforce stricter rules around in-office attendance.

“The pendulum is swinging back to pre-pandemic levels where working from home was an anomaly rather than an expectation,” Mr Brushfield said.

“Staff are attending the office more than they have since the pandemic as many employers have taken the opportunity of a job market with less candidate leverage to request their employees to come back to the office.”

While most workers are happy with the number of days they’re required in the office, more than one in five are unsatisfied, with the level of staff dissatisfaction rising in line with the number of mandated in-office days per week.

Survey respondents say improved collaboration, teamwork, communication and relationship building are the most important benefits of working from the office, however 84 per cent of staff say there are also negative impacts, led by the increased cost of commuting, lunch and other expenses (48 per cent), challenges managing a healthy work-life balance (37 per cent) and increased levels of stress (31 per cent).

The survey results reveal how hybrid working has emerged as one of the most important perks valued by white-collar workers.

Mr Brushfield said employers needed to strike a fine balance between catering to the demands of workers and maintaining a positive and collaborative workplace culture.

“In the current workplace landscape where flexibility is the new high-level currency for many employees, not everyone is pleased with this change of direction away from remote and hybrid work,” he said.

“Mandated office days can be a double-edged sword for workers. While they foster collaboration and connection, they can also lead to resentment and disengagement if not implemented and justified thoughtfully.

“Even with staff coming to terms with attending the office more frequently, the key for employers is to create an environment that highlights the positives of in-office work and sparks joy, not dread.”